Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilu Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21009/japa.0502.04Abstract
This study was conducted to determine the reaction of the Indonesian capital market to the 2024 Indonesian Presidential election event.The sample in this study was taken by purposive sampling method with the results of 921 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). This study uses secondary data obtained from the official IDX website. Hypothesis testing in this study using the Wilcoxon Test with the results found significant differences in abnormal returns before and after the announcement of election results by the KPU and the reading of the Constitutional Court's decision. There was no significant difference in trading volume activity before and after the announcement of the election results but a significant difference was found before and after the reading of the Constitutional Court's decision.
References
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Chavali, K., Alam, M., & Rosario, S. (2020). Stock market response to elections: An event study method. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(5), 9–18. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2020.VOL7.NO5.009
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Fama, E. (1965). The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices Author ( s ): Eugene F . Fama Source : The Journal of Business , Vol . 38 , No . 1 ( Jan ., 1965 ), pp . 34-105. The Journal of Business, 38(1), 34–105.
IDX. (2022). No Title. 2022. https://www.idx.co.id/id/tentang-bei/ikhtisar-dan-sejarah-bei#vision_mision
Indriani, R., & Mariana, M. (2021). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Pengesahan Uu Cipta Kerja 2020 (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Pada Lq45). Jurnal Bina Akuntansi, 8(2), 168–188. https://doi.org/10.52859/jba.v8i2.174
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Karina, K. L., Sujana, I. N., & Irwansyah, M. R. (2020). Analisis Reaksi Investor di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada Pelantikan Joko Widodo. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi Undiksha, 12(1), 50. https://doi.org/10.23887/jjpe.v12i1.21514
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Made, N., & Ratnaningsih, D. (2019). The Reaction of Indonesian Capital Market to Political Event the Announcement of Indonesia Presidential Election 2019 Results ( Event Study on KOMPAS 100 ). 6(6), 87–94.
Mawardi, M. C., Diana, N., & Anwar, J. (2020). Pengaruh Peristiwa Politik Tahun 2019 (Pemilu Presiden dan Pengumuman Susunan Kabinet) Terhadap Saham Sektor Industri di Bursa Efek Indonesia. 09(04), 83–96.
Morni, F., & Yazi, E. (2021). Stock Market Reaction to Political Regime Change in Malaysia. Capital Markets Review, 29(2), 1–11. https://www.mfa.com.my/cmr/v29_i2_a1/
Morris, R. D. (1987). Signalling, Agency Theory and Accounting Policy Choice. Accounting and Business Research, 18(69), 47–56. https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.1987.9729347
Ni Kadek Suantari, & I Gusti Ayu Purnamawati. (2022). Analisis Komparatif Reaksi Abnormal Return, Cummulative Abnormal Return, dan Trading Volume Activity Sebelum dan Sesudah Trend NFT di Indonesia. Vokasi : Jurnal Riset Akuntansi, 11(02), 149–158. https://doi.org/10.23887/vjra.v11i02.48752
No.7, U. (2020). UU No.7.
Paningrum, S. E. D. (2022). Buku referensi investasi pasar modal.
Pathonah, N., Purwanto, B., & Ermawati, W. (2021). Analysis Semi-Strong Efficiency Market Testing Through of Right Issue Influence on Abnormal Return in Emitens Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2017-2019. 2006. https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.14-9-2020.2304436
Pradana, E., Sudrajat, S., Nauli, P., & Yuliansyah, Y. (2021). Pengaruh Political Connection terhadap Cumulative Abnormal Return dan Trading Volume Activity pada Pemilihan Presiden 2019. Jurnal Studi Pemerintahan Dan Akuntabilitas, 1(1), 83–95. https://doi.org/10.35912/jastaka.v1i1.290
Puspa Permata Rita Hartati, C. (2022). Abnormal Return Saham Terhadap Peristiwa Politik Di Indonesia. Jurnal Trial Balance VOLUME, 1(1), 1–17.
RAHAYU, K. Y. (2024). Hasil Pemilu 2024 dan Perubahan Peta Kekuatan Politik di Parlemen. Kompas.Id. https://www.kompas.id/baca/polhuk/2024/03/21/hasil-pemilu-2024-dan-berubahnya-peta-kekuatan-politik-di-parlemen
Rika, W., & Kuntarti, W. (2014). ISSN No . 1978-6034 Behavior Of Stock Exchange Investors In Lampung Perilaku Investor Pada Pasar Modal Di Lampung Stock exchange is a venue for companies to find out some finance to support their business . The trading activities in this field come up wit. 8(1).
Rosdiana, R. (2020). The Influence of a Political Event on Property Sector Stocks in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, August, 32–45. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2020/v17i130252
Samdani, S., Ullah, H., Nabi, G., Zeb, N., Khan, M. K., & Ahmed, M. (2021). Stock Market Behaviour in Response to Political Events: A Case of Pakistan Major Political Events. Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government, 27(02), 3551–3576. https://doi.org/10.47750/cibg.2021.27.02.366
Saragih, E. M., Sadalia, I., & Silalahi, A. S. (2019). The_Impact_of_Presidential_Election_on_A. 6(May), 246–261.
Setiawan, R., & Nisa, Z. I. (2020). REAKSI PASAR TERHADAP HASIL QUICK COUNT PEMILU PRESIDEN INDONESIA 2019 ( STUDI PADA SAHAM INDEKS LQ-45 ). 4(1), 288–296.
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling.
Stefhani, Y. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Politik. Jurnal Manajemen, 4(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.54964/manajemen.v4i2.129
Sudarmo, S., Fidiana, F., & Kurnia, K. (2024). Reaksi Investor Pada Peristiwa Pengumuman Kabinet Indonesia Maju. JAK (Jurnal Akuntansi) Kajian Ilmiah Akuntansi, 11(1), 62–76. https://doi.org/10.30656/jak.v11i1.6251
Tandelilin, E. (2013). Portofolio dan Investasi Teori dan Aplikasi (Satu). In Yogyakarta: Kanisius. (1st ed., Vol. 636271). kansinuis. http://books.google.co.id/books?id=YLORI8ul44kC&printsec=frontcover&hl=id#v=onepage&q&f=false
Taufani, M. R. I. (2024). Anies & Ganjar Ajukan Gugatan ke MK. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20240322131024-128-524457/anies-ganjar-ajukan-gugatan-ke-mk-begini-tahapannya
Wibowo, A., & Darmanto, S. (2019). Impact of Quick Count Result of President Election on Stock Prices and Trade Activities in the Indonesian Capital Market. Saudi Journal of Business and Management Studies, 4(6), 487–493. https://doi.org/10.36348/sjbms.2019.v04i06.002
Bakri Katti, S. W. (2018). Pengaruh Peristiwa Politik (Pemilu Presiden dan Pengumuman Susunan Kabinet) Terhadap Saham Sektor Industri Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Capital: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Manajemen, 1(2), 125. https://doi.org/10.25273/capital.v1i2.2319
Bash, A., & Al-Awadhi, A. M. (2023). Presidential elections and stock market outcomes: An event-study on the effect of Turkey’s Presidential Elections on Borsa Istanbul. Cogent Economics and Finance, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2265659
BBC. (2024). Anies dan Ganjar minta MK batalkan hasil pilpres karena “ada kecurangan”, kubu Prabowo anggap gugatan “penuh asumsi.” BBC News Indonesia. https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/articles/c720l13y2lxo
Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2009). Fundamentals of Financial.
Budiarjo, M. (2008). Dasar-Dasar Ilmu Politik. PT Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Buigut, S., & Masinde, B. (2022). The Impact of General Elections on Kenya’s Tourism, Financial and Media Sector Stock Returns: An Event Study Approach. Journal of African Business, 23(2), 497–515. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2021.1874793
Chavali, K., Alam, M., & Rosario, S. (2020). Stock market response to elections: An event study method. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(5), 9–18. https://doi.org/10.13106/JAFEB.2020.VOL7.NO5.009
CNN Indonesia. (2024). Media Asing Sebut Investor Khawatir dengan Calon Menkeu Prabowo. CNN Indonesia. https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20240308151202-532-1072159/media-asing-sebut-investor-khawatir-dengan-calon-menkeu-prabowo
Dahl, R. A. (2007). The concept of power. Behavioral Science, 2(3), 201–215. https://doi.org/10.1002/bs.3830020303
Fama, E. (1965). The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices Author ( s ): Eugene F . Fama Source : The Journal of Business , Vol . 38 , No . 1 ( Jan ., 1965 ), pp . 34-105. The Journal of Business, 38(1), 34–105.
IDX. (2022). No Title. 2022. https://www.idx.co.id/id/tentang-bei/ikhtisar-dan-sejarah-bei#vision_mision
Indriani, R., & Mariana, M. (2021). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Pengesahan Uu Cipta Kerja 2020 (Studi Kasus Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Pada Lq45). Jurnal Bina Akuntansi, 8(2), 168–188. https://doi.org/10.52859/jba.v8i2.174
Jogiyanto, H. (2019). Teori portofolio dan analisis investasi (edisi Kesebelas). In Yogyakarta: BPFE.
Kadek Arista Dwi Pratama, I., Gusti Ayu Eka Damayanthi, I., Bagus Dharmadiaksa, I., & Alit Suardana, K. (2020). Capital Market Reaction to the 2019 Indonesian Presidential Election Announcement Results by the General Election Commission and Constitutional Court Decision I Kadek Arista Dwi Pratama. American Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research, 1, 286–291. www.ajhssr.com
Karina, K. L., Sujana, I. N., & Irwansyah, M. R. (2020). Analisis Reaksi Investor di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada Pelantikan Joko Widodo. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi Undiksha, 12(1), 50. https://doi.org/10.23887/jjpe.v12i1.21514
KSEI. (2024). No Title. https://www.ksei.co.id/files/Statistik_Publik_Januari_2024_v3.pdf
Liu, L., Shu, H., Wang, S., & Wei, K. C. J. (2011). The Political Cycle of Corporate Investments: New Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical, 44(8), 1–5.
MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). MacKinlay 1996 Event Studies in Economics and Finance. In Journal of Economic Literature, (Vol. 35, Issue 1, pp. 13–39).
Made, N., & Ratnaningsih, D. (2019). The Reaction of Indonesian Capital Market to Political Event the Announcement of Indonesia Presidential Election 2019 Results ( Event Study on KOMPAS 100 ). 6(6), 87–94.
Mawardi, M. C., Diana, N., & Anwar, J. (2020). Pengaruh Peristiwa Politik Tahun 2019 (Pemilu Presiden dan Pengumuman Susunan Kabinet) Terhadap Saham Sektor Industri di Bursa Efek Indonesia. 09(04), 83–96.
Morni, F., & Yazi, E. (2021). Stock Market Reaction to Political Regime Change in Malaysia. Capital Markets Review, 29(2), 1–11. https://www.mfa.com.my/cmr/v29_i2_a1/
Morris, R. D. (1987). Signalling, Agency Theory and Accounting Policy Choice. Accounting and Business Research, 18(69), 47–56. https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.1987.9729347
Ni Kadek Suantari, & I Gusti Ayu Purnamawati. (2022). Analisis Komparatif Reaksi Abnormal Return, Cummulative Abnormal Return, dan Trading Volume Activity Sebelum dan Sesudah Trend NFT di Indonesia. Vokasi : Jurnal Riset Akuntansi, 11(02), 149–158. https://doi.org/10.23887/vjra.v11i02.48752
No.7, U. (2020). UU No.7.
Paningrum, S. E. D. (2022). Buku referensi investasi pasar modal.
Pathonah, N., Purwanto, B., & Ermawati, W. (2021). Analysis Semi-Strong Efficiency Market Testing Through of Right Issue Influence on Abnormal Return in Emitens Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2017-2019. 2006. https://doi.org/10.4108/eai.14-9-2020.2304436
Pradana, E., Sudrajat, S., Nauli, P., & Yuliansyah, Y. (2021). Pengaruh Political Connection terhadap Cumulative Abnormal Return dan Trading Volume Activity pada Pemilihan Presiden 2019. Jurnal Studi Pemerintahan Dan Akuntabilitas, 1(1), 83–95. https://doi.org/10.35912/jastaka.v1i1.290
Puspa Permata Rita Hartati, C. (2022). Abnormal Return Saham Terhadap Peristiwa Politik Di Indonesia. Jurnal Trial Balance VOLUME, 1(1), 1–17.
RAHAYU, K. Y. (2024). Hasil Pemilu 2024 dan Perubahan Peta Kekuatan Politik di Parlemen. Kompas.Id. https://www.kompas.id/baca/polhuk/2024/03/21/hasil-pemilu-2024-dan-berubahnya-peta-kekuatan-politik-di-parlemen
Rika, W., & Kuntarti, W. (2014). ISSN No . 1978-6034 Behavior Of Stock Exchange Investors In Lampung Perilaku Investor Pada Pasar Modal Di Lampung Stock exchange is a venue for companies to find out some finance to support their business . The trading activities in this field come up wit. 8(1).
Rosdiana, R. (2020). The Influence of a Political Event on Property Sector Stocks in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, August, 32–45. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2020/v17i130252
Samdani, S., Ullah, H., Nabi, G., Zeb, N., Khan, M. K., & Ahmed, M. (2021). Stock Market Behaviour in Response to Political Events: A Case of Pakistan Major Political Events. Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business and Government, 27(02), 3551–3576. https://doi.org/10.47750/cibg.2021.27.02.366
Saragih, E. M., Sadalia, I., & Silalahi, A. S. (2019). The_Impact_of_Presidential_Election_on_A. 6(May), 246–261.
Setiawan, R., & Nisa, Z. I. (2020). REAKSI PASAR TERHADAP HASIL QUICK COUNT PEMILU PRESIDEN INDONESIA 2019 ( STUDI PADA SAHAM INDEKS LQ-45 ). 4(1), 288–296.
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling.
Stefhani, Y. (2020). Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Peristiwa Politik. Jurnal Manajemen, 4(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.54964/manajemen.v4i2.129
Sudarmo, S., Fidiana, F., & Kurnia, K. (2024). Reaksi Investor Pada Peristiwa Pengumuman Kabinet Indonesia Maju. JAK (Jurnal Akuntansi) Kajian Ilmiah Akuntansi, 11(1), 62–76. https://doi.org/10.30656/jak.v11i1.6251
Tandelilin, E. (2013). Portofolio dan Investasi Teori dan Aplikasi (Satu). In Yogyakarta: Kanisius. (1st ed., Vol. 636271). kansinuis. http://books.google.co.id/books?id=YLORI8ul44kC&printsec=frontcover&hl=id#v=onepage&q&f=false
Taufani, M. R. I. (2024). Anies & Ganjar Ajukan Gugatan ke MK. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/research/20240322131024-128-524457/anies-ganjar-ajukan-gugatan-ke-mk-begini-tahapannya
Wibowo, A., & Darmanto, S. (2019). Impact of Quick Count Result of President Election on Stock Prices and Trade Activities in the Indonesian Capital Market. Saudi Journal of Business and Management Studies, 4(6), 487–493. https://doi.org/10.36348/sjbms.2019.v04i06.002
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Published
2024-07-20
How to Cite
Pratama, M. R., Handarini, D., & Zairin, G. M. (2024). Analisis Reaksi Pasar Modal Terhadap Pemilu Presiden Indonesia Tahun 2024. Jurnal Akuntansi, Perpajakan Dan Auditing, 5(2), 283–302. https://doi.org/10.21009/japa.0502.04
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