HIERARCHICAL TWO-WAY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DIVERSE BENEFIT SCENARIO OF MATENGGENG DAM FEASIBILITY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v13i1.37725Keywords:
Matenggeng Dam, Feasibility Study, Sensitivity AnalysisAbstract
The Indonesian government formulated plans for the construction of the Matenggeng Dam, aiming to enhance local agricultural productivity. This dam will store water from the Cijolang River, a tributary of the Citanduy River. The construction of Matenggeng Dam encompasses option of municipal water enhancement and four normal water levels: 190m, 194m, 197m, and 199m. According to the hydrology, social-economic, and dam structure design reports, each option entails distinct benefits and costs. The report informed dam’s agriculture potential benefit, land use, and cost by each water level option. To assess the project's viability, an economic analysis and hierarchical two-way sensitivity analysis has been conducted to examine the impact of water level variations on the economic evaluation outcomes. Results obtained at a discount rate of 10.08% indicate that 194m and 197m water level options exhibit positive NPV, IRR greater than the interest rate, PBP less than 50 years, and a BCR exceeding 1. While both options demonstrate feasibility, the 194m appears more favorable. Despite the 197m water level presenting a slightly higher IRR by 0.02%, respectively, it incurs a cost deviation of IDR 100 billion. However, the 194m water level emerges as a more enticing choice due to its lower cost implications.
References
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Sawsan, A. E. A., Ali Hammad, A. A., & Mohamed, T. F. (2019). The Hydropower Plants Dams. IJISET-International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology, 6(4), 193–207.
Ssegawa, J. K., & Muzinda, M. (2021). Feasibility assessment framework (FAF): A systematic and objective approach for assessing the viability of a project. In Procedia Computer Science (Vol. 181, pp. 377–385). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.180
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Ayunda, A., & Sambowo, K. A. (2020). Relevansi Mata Kuliah Ilmu Bahan Bangunan terhadap Bahan Bangunan di Dunia Industri. Jurnal PenSil, 9(3), 172–180. https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v9i3.16564
Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Kabupaten Ciamis. (2021). Data Pokok 2021 Perencanaan Pembangunan Kabupaten Ciamis. Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Kabupaten Ciamis.
BNPB. (2022, March 20). Banjir Melanda Kabupaten Cilacap, Sebanyak 424 Warga Mengungsi.
Bracarense, L. D. S. F. P., Brandão, R., Yamashita, Y., & Aragão, J. J. G. De. (2016). Feasibility Study for Waterway Infrastructure: International Overview and Methodological Recommendations. Transportation Research Procedia, 18, 305–311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.040
Castillo, J. G., & Zhangallimbay, D. (2021). The social discount rate in the evaluation of investment projects: an application for Ecuador. CEPAL Review, 134, 75–95.
Dinas Sumber Daya Air Provinsi Jawa Barat. (2019). Rencana Strategis (Renstra) Dinas Sumber Daya Air Provinsi Jawa Barat 2018-2023. Dinas Sumber Daya Air Provinsi Jawa Barat.
Duda-Gromada, K. (2012). Use of river reservoirs for tourism and recreation case study: Solińskie lake in Poland. In Polish Journal of Natural Sciences (Vol. 27, Issue 4, pp. 367–376).
Gracia-Faure, L., Fernandez-Salva, G., Enriquez-Gracia, L., & Munoz, M. P. (2023). Sensitivity Analysis of the Economic-Financial Feasibility Study of the Punta de Maisi Wind Farm Project. Journal of Business and Enterpreneurial, 7, 44–55.
Handoko, W., Sulaiman, A. I., & Akbar, A. A. S. (2014). Komunikasi Partisipatif dalam Proses Pembagunan Bendungan Matenggeng Kabupaten Cilacap Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Penelitian Komunikasi, 17, 141–152. https://doi.org/10.20422/jpk.v17i2.13
Hanun, I. A., Sutopo, W., & Rochani, R. (2023). Feasibility Study of Charging Infrastructure to Increase Vehicle Electrification in Indonesia. Jurnal Teknik Industri, 25(2), 141–152.
Hargianti, M. (2021). Analisis Kebutuhan Fasilitas Instruktur Ruang Terbuka Publik di Tepian Sungai Musi. Jurnal PenSil, 10(3), 130–140. https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v10i3.23003
Heming, L., Waley, P., & Rees, P. (2001). Reservoir Resettlement in China: Past Experience and the Three Gorges Dam. The Geographical Journal, 167(3), 195–212.
Ho, M., Lall, U., Allaire, M., Devineni, N., Kwon, H. H., Pal, I., Raff, D., & Wegner, D. (2017). The Future Role of Dams in The United States of America. Water Resources Research, 53(2), 982–998. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr019905
Hutasoit, G. M., Chumaidiyah, E., & Praptono, B. (2021). Feasibility Analysis of Culinary Business Cafe Nusantara Development in the Central of Jakarta. International Conference on Rural Development and Enterprenuership, 5(1), 1114–1123.
Iooss, B., & Saltelli, A. (2015). Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11259-6
Irwanto, T., & Abi, Y. I. (2023). Feasibility Study Of Bapak Gunoto ’ s Know Business In Lebong District Studi Kelayakan Bisnis Usaha Tahu Bapak Gunoto Di Kabupaten Lebong. Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Akutansi Dan Keuangan (EMAK), 4(3), 517–526.
Jia, J., Zheng, C., & Zhao, C. (2008). Dam safety in China and the life span evaluation of old concrete dams. Proceedings of the International FIB Symposium 2008 - Tailor Made Concrete Structures: New Solutions for Our Society, 9–14. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781439828410.ch4
Kalsum, A. U., Sutjiningsih, D., Anggraheni, E., & Murniningsih, S. (2020). Economic feasibility analysis of Gintung Dam. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 599(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/599/1/012053
Karanovic, G., Baresa, S., & Bogdan, S. (2010). Techniques for Managing Projects Risk in Capital Budgeting Process. UTMS Journal of Economics, 1(2), 55–66.
KPPIP. (2023). BENDUNGAN MATENGGENG. Retrieved July 1, 2023, from https://kppip.go.id/proyek-strategis-nasional/bendungan-dan-irigasi/bendungan-matenggeng/
Lin, Q. (2011). Influence of Dams on River Ecosystem and Its Countermeasures. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 03(01), 60–66. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2011.31007
Marsudi, S., Lufira, R. D., Sari, S., & Riadi, D. (2021). Economic Feasibility Analysis Development of Intake and Raw Water Pipelines in Kota Bangun Sub-District, Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 930, 0–8. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/930/1/012060
Mentari, D., & Daryanto, W. M. (2018). Capital Budgeting Model and Sensitivity Analysis of the Project Feasibility in Vietnam for the Period of 2019-2037. International Journal of Business, Economics and Law, 17(2), 21–28.
Nashrulloh, F., Sulaiman, M., & Budiarto, R. (2021). Analysis of Potential and Feasibility of Hydropower Energy from Sepaku Semoi Dam in PenajamPaser Utara Regency. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 297(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012016
Novirani, I. D., & Irianto, I. T. (2009). Designing Integrated Terminal - Feasibility Study Of The Gedebage Integrated Terminal In Bandung. 11th International Conference on QiR (Quality in Research), August, 3–6.
Pangaribuan, F. A., Septian, B., Sangkawati, S., & Edhisono, S. (2014). Perencanaan Bendungan Matenggeng di Kabupaten Cilacap. Jurnal Karya Teknik Sipil, 3(1), 48–57.
Partono, B., & Rahman, M. S. K. (2017). Development of Tourism Site on the Narrow Land (Case Study Dam Colo, Nguter District of Sukoharjo). International Journal of Research in Tourism and Hospitality, 3(4), 25–29. https://doi.org/10.20431/2455-0043.0304003
Perera, D., Smakhtin, V., Williams, S., North, T., Curry, A., Smakthin, V., Williams, S., North, T., & Curry, A. (2021). Ageing Water Storage Infrastructure: An Emerging Global Risk (Issue 11).
Pujiriyani, D. W., Wulansari, H., & Suyudi, B. (2021). Land acquisition for dams: Relocation problem and potential change in livelihood of communities affected villages. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 892. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/892/1/012106
Reskita Lubis, L., & Fitriani, H. (2018). Financial Feasibility Analysis of Warehouse Boarding At the Port of Baai Island Bengkulu. CSID Journal of Sustainable City and Urban Development, 1(1), 49–64.
Sawsan, A. E. A., Ali Hammad, A. A., & Mohamed, T. F. (2019). The Hydropower Plants Dams. IJISET-International Journal of Innovative Science, Engineering & Technology, 6(4), 193–207.
Ssegawa, J. K., & Muzinda, M. (2021). Feasibility assessment framework (FAF): A systematic and objective approach for assessing the viability of a project. In Procedia Computer Science (Vol. 181, pp. 377–385). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2021.01.180
Teigland, J. (1999). Predictions and realities: Impacts on tourism and recreation from hydropower and major road developments. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 17(1), 67–76. https://doi.org/10.3152/147154699781767972
Wantah, V. J., & Kitri, M. L. (2021). Financial Feasibility Analysis of XYZ Hotel ’ s Investment on Corporate Catering Business in Times of Pandemic. The 6th ICMEM 2021, August, 11–13.
Wan-Wendner, R. (2018). Aging concrete structures: A review of mechanics and concepts. Die Bodenkultur Journal of Land Management Food and Environment, 69(3), 175–199. https://doi.org/10.2478/boku-2018-0015
Wiratama, D. H. (2020). Feasibility Analysis of Investment Assets for Business Development in the Calculation of Capital Budgeting in Surabaya Ud Rahayu. IJESS International Journal of Education and Social Science, 1(1), 16–27. https://doi.org/10.56371/ijess.v1i1.24
Yafril, & Priyambodho, B. (2023). Feasibility of north tangerang toll road construction. Jurnal Syntax ADMIRATION, 4(4), 426–442.
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2024-01-30
How to Cite
Roy, A. F. V., & Yonathan, T. L. . (2024). HIERARCHICAL TWO-WAY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DIVERSE BENEFIT SCENARIO OF MATENGGENG DAM FEASIBILITY. Jurnal Pensil : Pendidikan Teknik Sipil, 13(1), 72–82. https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v13i1.37725
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