EVALUATION OF TUKUL DAM SLOPE STABILITY IN PACITAN UNDER THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Arintha Indah Dwi Syafiarti; Mohamad Ferdaus Noor Aulady; Laras Laila Lestari; Dyan Eka Nurhayati; Biantoro Pambudi

doi:10.21009/jpensil.v14i2.54366

Authors

Arintha Indah Dwi Syafiarti Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning, Institut Teknologi Adhi Tama Surabaya
Mohamad Ferdaus Noor Aulady Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning, Institut Teknologi Adhi Tama Surabaya
Laras Laila Lestari Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning, Institut Teknologi Adhi Tama Surabaya
Dyan Eka Nurhayati Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning, Institut Teknologi Adhi Tama Surabaya
Biantoro Pambudi Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning, Institut Teknologi Adhi Tama Surabaya

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v14i2.54366

Keywords:

Climate Change, Flood Discharge, Slope Stability, HEC-RAS, Geostudio

Abstract

This aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the hydrological, hydraulic, and slope stability conditions of the Tukul Dam in the Kali Telu watershed, Pacitan. The methodology includes hydrological analysis using the Log Pearson Type III distribution, flood discharge estimation with the HSS Nakayasu method, and hydraulic simulation using HEC-RAS to determine maximum floodwater elevation. Slope stability was analyzed with Geostudio using the Bishop method to determine the factor of safety (FS). The results indicate that the maximum 1,000-year rainfall reaches 550.82 mm, generating a peak discharge of 1,152.26 m³/s, exceeding the design discharge of 380.73 m³/s. Hydraulic simulation showed a floodwater elevation of +183.59 meters, while slope stability analysis confirmed that all FS values remained above the safe limit of 1.30, ensuring dam stability. This study integrates updated hydrological data with geotechnical modeling to enhance understanding of dam resilience under extreme conditions. Recommendations include spillway capacity improvements, early warning systems, and continuous monitoring to mitigate future flood risks.

References

Aksoy, H., Kirca, V. S. O., Burgan, H. I., & Kellecioglu, D. (2016). Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, 373, 137–141. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-373-137-2016

Ananta, M. I., Limantara, L. M., & Soetopo, W. (2024). The Impact of Climate Change on Air Temperature in the Rainy and Dry Seasons in East Java, Indonesia: A Case Study of Climate Change in the Wlingi Dam Area. International Journal of Environmental Impacts, 7(2), 169–180. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijei.070202

Ansori, M. B. (2023). FLOOD HYDROGRAPH ANALYSIS USING SYNTHETIC UNIT HYDROGRAPH, HEC-HMS, AND HEC-RAS 2D UNSTEADY FLOW PRECIPITATION ON-GRID MODEL FOR DISASTER RISK MITIGATION. International Journal of GEOMATE, 25(107). https://doi.org/10.21660/2023.107.3719

Ansori, M. B., Lasminto, U., & Kartika, A. A. G. (2024). Runoff Hydrograph Analysis of HEC-RAS 2D Flow Hydrodynamics Meteorological Rain-on-Grid on Observed Watershed: A Case Study of Wiroko Sub-Watershed. International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology, 14(2), 575–581. https://doi.org/10.18517/ijaseit.14.2.19813

Arafat, Y., Tunas, I., Amaliah, T., & Amiruddin, A. (2020). Hydrograph Study of Palu River Watershed. MATEC Web of Conferences, 331, 04001. https://doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202033104001

Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana. (2018). Indeks Risiko Bencana Indonesia. Indeks Risiko Bencana Indonesia. https://inarisk.bnpb.go.id/irbi

BMKG Jawa Timur. (2016). Analisis Distribusi Curah Hujan Jawa Timur Bulanan. https://staklim-jatim.bmkg.go.id/index.php/analisis-bulanan/167-analisis-distribusi-hujan/analisis-distribusi-curah-hujan/analisis-distribusi-curah-hujan-jawa-timur-bulanan

Gabriel-Martin, I., Sordo-Ward, A., Garrote, L., & Granados, I. (2019). Hydrological Risk Analysis of Dams: The Influence of Initial Reservoir Level Conditions. Water, 11(3), 461. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030461

Gholamzade, M., & Khalkhali, A. B. (2021). Slope Stability Analysis Under Pore-Water Pressure: A Case Study in Zarm-Rood Earthfill Dam, Iran. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-498150/v1

Gunawan, A. R. M. P., Suharyanto, S., Sriyana, I., & Nuramini, T. M. (2024). Effect of changes on land use and erosivity on erosion hazards and the reservoir lifespan of Tukul Dam, using USLE method. E3S Web of Conferences, 576, 12. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202457602003

Helmi, H., Basri, H., Sufardi, S., & Helmi, H. (2019). Flood vulnerability level analysis as a hydrological disaster mitigation effort in Krueng Jreue Sub-Watershed, Aceh Besar, Indonesia. Jàmbá Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v11i1.737

Hidayat, A., Limantara, L. M., Soetopo, W., & Sisinggih, D. (2022). Alpha Parameter Modeling of Nakayasu Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Based on the Watershed Shape Factor. Journal of Hunan University Natural Sciences, 49(1), 31–37. https://doi.org/10.55463/issn.1674-2974.49.1.5

Huseiny, Moh. I., Kuntoro, A. A., Nugroho, E. O., & Kusuma, M. S. B. (2024). Dam-Break Risk Analysis and Mitigation at Pidekso Dam, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. Journal of Water Management Modeling. https://doi.org/10.14796/JWMM.C521

Hutama, D. A., & Farichah, H. (2024). STABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ROOT-REINFORCED SLOPES USING FINITE ELEMENT LIMIT ANALYSIS. Jurnal PenSil, 13(2), 158–168. https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v13i2.44244

Idfi, G., Yulistyorini, A., & Suryoputro, N. (2020). The comparative study of peak discharge at Ngotok watershed by using the method of SCS, Snyder and Nakayasu for flood control needs. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 930(1), 012075. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/930/1/012075

Indriani, R. F., Hafiizh, M., & Utama, W. (2021). Hydrological Study of the Nakayasu Hydrograph Method for Design of Water Retention in the JIIPE Gresik Industrial Estate. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 799(1), 012001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/799/1/012001

Kar, S. S., & Roy, L. B. (2021). Slope Stability Analysis of an Earthen Dam Using GEOSTUDIO 2007 Software. In S. Patel, C. H. Solanki, K. R. Reddy, & S. K. Shukla (Eds.), Proceedings of the Indian Geotechnical Conference 2019 (Vol. 133, pp. 693–704). Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6346-5_60

Karnaji, K., Susanti, E., Ariadi, S., & Saud, M. (2024). Social impacts and post-disaster management in disaster-prone areas of East Java, Indonesia. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.4102/jamba.v16i1.1747

Kelly Levin, David Waskow, & Rhys Gerholdt. (2021, August). 5 Big Findings from the IPCC’s 2021 Climate Report. World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/insights/ipcc-climate-report

M. Eddleston. (2012). Exploring the potential use of a risk based approach to assessing geotechnical well-being of the slopes of old embankment dams. Proceedings of British Dam Society Conference, Dams: Engineering in a Social and Environmental Context, 206–218.

Mosaid, H., Barakat, A., Bouras, E. H., Ismaili, M., El Garnaoui, M., Abdelrahman, K., & Kahal, A. Y. (2024). Dam Siltation in the Mediterranean Region Under Climate Change: A Case Study of Ahmed El Hansali Dam, Morocco. Water, 16(21), 3108. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16213108

Mouyeaux, A., Carvajal, C., Nicot, F., Wautier, A., & Peyras, L. (2023). Stability Analysis of Earth Dam Slopes Based on the Second-Order Work Criterion in Finite Element Modeling. Geotechnics, 3(4), 1117–1134. https://doi.org/10.3390/geotechnics3040061

Muharis, C., & Utamaningsih, A. (2023). Land Acquisition and Resettlement Action Plan (LARAP) of Tukul Dam Project, Pacitan, East Java, Indonesia. ACI Avances En Ciencias e Ingenierías, 15(2). https://doi.org/10.18272/aci.v15i2.3129

Nugraha Putra, A., Nita, I., Rifqi Al Jauhary, M., Rindi Nurhutami, S., & Hasmadi Ismail, M. (2021). Landslide Risk Analysis on Agriculture Area in Pacitan Regency in East Java Indonesia Using Geospatial Techniques. Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 19(2), 141–152. https://doi.org/10.32526/ennrj/19/2020167

Nur Aini, Irma Fitriana Ulfah, & Laode Machdani Afala. (2018). Efektivitas Program Desa Tangguh Bencana Di Desa Sirnoboyo Tahun 2017. Jurnal Mahasiswa Ilmu Pemerintahan, 3(2), 51–53.

Nurjannah, A., Ishak, A., & Sakir. (2019). Implementation of E-Government Public Relations for Disaster Communication. Proceedings of the 1st Annual Internatioal Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities (AICOSH 2019). Proceedings of the 1st Annual Internatioal Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities (AICOSH 2019), Yogyakarta, Indonesia. https://doi.org/10.2991/aicosh-19.2019.10

Ogras, S., & Onen, F. (2020). Flood Analysis with HEC‐RAS: A Case Study of Tigris River. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2020(1), 6131982. https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/6131982

Peker, İ. B., Gülbaz, S., Demir, V., Orhan, O., & Beden, N. (2024). Integration of HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS with GIS in Flood Modeling and Flood Hazard Mapping. Sustainability, 16(3), 1226. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16031226

Pelascini, L., Steer, P., Mouyen, M., & Longuevergne, L. (2022). Finite-hillslope analysis of landslides triggered by excess pore water pressure: The roles of atmospheric pressure and rainfall infiltration during typhoons. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22(10), 3125–3141. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3125-2022

Petkovsek, G. (2023). Monitoring and Modelling of Sediment Flushing: A Review. Scientific Research Communications, 3(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.52460/src.2023.001

Petrovic, D., Fersch, B., & Kunstmann, H. (2022). Droughts in Germany: Performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22(12), 3875–3895. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022

Psarropoulos, P. N., Makrakis, N., & Tsompanakis, Y. (2024). Climate Change Impact on the Stability of Soil Slopes from a Hydrological and Geotechnical Perspective. GeoHazards, 5(4), 1190–1206. https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5040056

Resosudarmo, B. P., Ardiansyah, F., & Napitupulu, L. (2013). The Dynamics of Climate Change Governance in Indonesia. In Climate Governance in the Developing World (1st ed., pp. 72–90). Polity Press.

Risal Ardiansyah Putra, Amelia Rosana Putri, & Faried Abdillah Santoso. (2021). INVESTIGASI KAWASAN RAWAN BENCANA LONGSOR DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN SISTEM INFORMASI GEOGRAFIS STUDI KASUS KABUPATEN MADIUN. Jurnal PenSil, 10(2), 68–79. https://doi.org/10.21009/jpensil.v10i2.20253

Safarina, A. B. (2012). Modified Nakayasu Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Method For Meso Scale Ungauge Watersheds. International Journal of Engineering Research and Applications, 2(4).

Tabari, H. (2020). Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 13768. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2

Wasko, C., & Sharma, A. (2017). Global assessment of flood and storm extremes with increased temperatures. Scientific Reports, 7(1), 7945. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08481-1

Westra, S., Fowler, H. J., Evans, J. P., Alexander, L. V., Berg, P., Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., & Roberts, N. M. (2014). Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall: FUTURE INTENSITY OF SUB-DAILY RAINFALL. Reviews of Geophysics, 52(3), 522–555. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000464

Wu, D., Wang, Y., Zhang, F., & Qiu, Y. (2021). Influences of Pore‐Water Pressure on Slope Stability considering Strength Nonlinearity. Advances in Civil Engineering, 2021(1), 8823899. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/8823899

Yang, D., Wu, J., Guo, Z., Zeng, X., & Zhang, Q. (2024). Safety risk assessment of reservoir dam structure: An empirical study in China. Scientific Reports, 14(1), 20232. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-71156-1

Yang, H., Chen, C., Zhao, W., Lu, X., Zhang, P., & Xue, J. (2025). A novel reliability method for assessing dam slope stability by incorporating intrinsic correlations of rockfill materials. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 259, 110961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2025.110961